Financial Outlook (Prediction): Difference between revisions
Created page with "'''''Disclaimer''': We want to be transparent—our insights are based on general observations and recent trends, not professional financial expertise. We're not financial advisors, and while we've done our best to interpret the data, our predictions <u>might not</u> be perfectly accurate.'' How We Generated the Financial Outlook (Prediction) ---- === Pro Business, Low Regulation - Model 1 of 3 === {| class="wikitable" |+ !Year !Average Cost Of Groceries !Gas Price !''..." |
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'''''Disclaimer''': We want to be transparent—our insights are based on general observations and recent trends, not professional financial expertise. We're not financial advisors, and while we've done our best to interpret the data, our predictions <u>might not</u> be perfectly accurate.'' | '''''Disclaimer''': We want to be transparent—our insights are based on general observations and recent trends, not professional financial expertise. We're not financial advisors, and while we've done our best to interpret the data, our predictions <u>might not</u> be perfectly accurate.'' | ||
How We Generated the Financial Outlook (Prediction) | [[How We Generated the Financial Outlook (Prediction)]] | ||
---- | ---- | ||
=== Pro Business, Low Regulation - Model 1 of | === Pro Business, Low Regulation - Model 1 of 4 === | ||
{| class="wikitable" | {| class="wikitable" | ||
|+ | |+ | ||
Line 93: | Line 93: | ||
* ''Increased demand for housing with higher rent as housing supply remains tight.'' | * ''Increased demand for housing with higher rent as housing supply remains tight.'' | ||
=== Tech-Driven, Musk-Focused Innovation - Model 2 of | === Tech-Driven, Musk-Focused Innovation - Model 2 of 4 === | ||
{| class="wikitable" | {| class="wikitable" | ||
!Year | !Year | ||
Line 180: | Line 180: | ||
* Rising demand as tech industries create wealth and jobs. | * Rising demand as tech industries create wealth and jobs. | ||
=== Tightened Regulations, Return to Energy Independence - Model 3 of | === Tightened Regulations, Return to Energy Independence - Model 3 of 4 === | ||
{| class="wikitable" | {| class="wikitable" | ||
!Year | !Year | ||
Line 265: | Line 265: | ||
* Higher rates to counter inflationary pressures and support the economy. | * Higher rates to counter inflationary pressures and support the economy. | ||
* Rising prices due to demand for housing and slower supply due to regulatory restrictions. | * Rising prices due to demand for housing and slower supply due to regulatory restrictions. | ||
* Rent increases as demand outpaces supply in a growing economy. | * Rent increases as demand outpaces supply in a growing economy. | ||
=== Nothing Changes Model - Model 4 of 4 === | |||
{| class="wikitable" | |||
!Year | |||
!Average Cost Of Groceries | |||
!Gas Price | |||
!'''Unemployment Rate''' | |||
!National Deficit | |||
!Inflation Rate | |||
!GDP Growth Rate | |||
!Median Household Income | |||
!'''Federal Interest Rate''': | |||
!Housing Market Median Price | |||
!'''Avg Monthly Rent''': | |||
|- | |||
|'''2024''' | |||
|'''$438''' | |||
|'''$3.66''' | |||
|'''3.9%''' | |||
|'''1.7T''' | |||
|'''2.4%''' | |||
|'''1.9%''' | |||
|'''$74,000''' | |||
|'''5.5%''' | |||
|'''$415,000''' | |||
|'''$2,047''' | |||
|- | |||
|2025 | |||
|$470 | |||
|$3.45 | |||
|4.0% | |||
|1.8T | |||
|3.0% | |||
|2.0% | |||
|$80,000 | |||
|4.8% | |||
|$435,000 | |||
|$1,800 | |||
|- | |||
|2026 | |||
|$485 | |||
|$3.50 | |||
|4.1% | |||
|1.9T | |||
|2.7% | |||
|1.9% | |||
|$82,000 | |||
|4.7% | |||
|$440,000 | |||
|$1,850 | |||
|- | |||
|2027 | |||
|$500 | |||
|$3.55 | |||
|4.2% | |||
|2.0T | |||
|2.5% | |||
|1.8% | |||
|$84,000 | |||
|4.5% | |||
|$445,000 | |||
|$1,900 | |||
|- | |||
|2028 | |||
|$515 | |||
|$3.60 | |||
|4.3% | |||
|2.1T | |||
|2.4% | |||
|1.7% | |||
|$86,000 | |||
|4.3% | |||
|$450,000 | |||
|$1,950 | |||
|} | |||
This model uses the data from [[How We Generated the Financial Outlook (Prediction)]] |
Latest revision as of 06:57, 9 November 2024
Disclaimer: We want to be transparent—our insights are based on general observations and recent trends, not professional financial expertise. We're not financial advisors, and while we've done our best to interpret the data, our predictions might not be perfectly accurate.
How We Generated the Financial Outlook (Prediction)
Pro Business, Low Regulation - Model 1 of 4
Year | Average Cost Of Groceries | Gas Price | Unemployment Rate | National Deficit | Inflation Rate | GDP Growth Rate | Median Household Income | Federal Interest Rate: | Housing Market Median Price | Avg Monthly Rent: |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2024 | $438 | $3.66 | 3.9% | 1.7T | 2.4% | 1.9% | $74,000 | 5.5% | $415,000 | $2,047 |
2025 | $350 | $3.50 | 4.2% | 1.5T | 4.0% | 3.5% | $70,000 | 3.5% | $380,000 | $1,800 |
2026 | $375 | $3.80 | 4.0% | 1.7T | 3.5% | 4.0% | $73,000 | 4.0% | $400,000 | $2,000 |
2027 | $400 | $4.00 | 3.8% | 1.9T | 2.8% | 4.2% | $76,000 | 4.2% | $420,000 | $2,200 |
2028 | $425 | $4.25 | 3.5% | 2.1 T | 2.5% | 3.8% | $80,000 | 4.5% | $450,000 | $2,400 |
This scenario assumes a focus on reducing taxes, cutting regulations, promoting the use of fossil fuels, and investing heavily in infrastructure, with a pro-business stance.
- This increase is driven by supply chain pressures and inflation, but Trump's deregulation and Musk's tech innovations may help mitigate some cost.
- Due to increased reliance on fossil fuels and limited moves towards electric vehicle adoption in the near term
- Pro-business policies, infrastructure investment, and Musk's technological advancements lead to job growth.
- Due to tax cuts, defense spending, and infrastructure investment without immediate tax revenue increases.
- Continued economic growth from deregulation may eventually stabilize inflation.
- Strong economic expansion as deregulation and infrastructure investments drive growth.
- Rising as the economy grows and wages adjust to new jobs created in tech and infrastructure sectors.
- The Fed raises rates to combat inflation while maintaining the strength of the dollar
- Strong demand driven by economic growth and more people entering the market.
- Increased demand for housing with higher rent as housing supply remains tight.
Tech-Driven, Musk-Focused Innovation - Model 2 of 4
Year | Average Cost Of Groceries | Gas Price | Unemployment Rate | National Deficit | Inflation Rate | GDP Growth Rate | Median Household Income | Federal Interest Rate: | Housing Market Median Price | Avg Monthly Rent: |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2024 | $438 | $3.66 | 3.9% | 1.7T | 2.4% | 1.9% | $74,000 | 5.5% | $415,000 | $2,047 |
2025 | $340 | $2.90 | 3.8% | 1.2T | 3.2% | 3.8% | $72,000 | 2.5% | $375,000 | $1,750 |
2026 | $350 | $2.80 | 3.5% | 1.3T | 3.0% | 4.5% | $76,000 | 2.8% | $390,000 | $1,850 |
2027 | $360 | $2.60 | 3.2% | 1.4T | 2.5% | 5.0% | $80,000 | 3.0% | $400,000 | $2,000 |
2028 | $370 | $2.50 | 2.9% | 1.5T | 2.2% | 4.8% | $85,000 | 3.2% | $420,000 | $2,150 |
In this scenario, Musk’s influence leads to accelerated electric vehicle adoption, space exploration, and high-tech infrastructure projects, with lower energy costs from renewables
- Slow but steady increases as tech-driven efficiency helps supply chains, but inflationary pressures remain.
- Shift to electric vehicles and renewable energy investments reduce reliance on fossil fuels.
- High demand for tech jobs and space-related industries.
- Technological investments and space exploration add costs, but efficiency in other sectors balances this out.
- Technological advances, especially in energy, help reduce inflationary pressures.
- Tech and innovation drive GDP, with SpaceX and Tesla pushing new industries.
- Higher demand for high-skilled workers boosts income, especially in tech and renewables.
- Interest rates increase slightly to maintain economic growth, but the tech-driven economy remains strong.
- A tech boom drives housing demand, but new tech-driven cities help offset rising costs.
- Rising demand as tech industries create wealth and jobs.
Tightened Regulations, Return to Energy Independence - Model 3 of 4
Year | Average Cost Of Groceries | Gas Price | Unemployment Rate | National Deficit | Inflation Rate | GDP Growth Rate | Median Household Income | Federal Interest Rate: | Housing Market Median Price | Avg Monthly Rent: |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2024 | $438 | $3.66 | 3.9% | 1.7T | 2.4% | 1.9% | $74,000 | 5.5% | $415,000 | $2,047 |
2025 | $360 | $3.80 | 5.0% | 2.0T | 4.5% | 2.8% | $68,000 | 4.0% | $390,000 | $1,850 |
2026 | $380 | $4.00 | 4.7% | 2.2T | 4.0% | 3.0% | $70,000 | 4.2% | $420,000 | $2,000 |
2027 | $400 | $4.20 | 4.5% | 2.3T | 3.5% | 3.3% | $72.000 | 4.5% | $440,000 | $2,150 |
2028 | $420 | $4.50 | 4.2% | 2.5T | 3.2% | 3.0% | $75,000 | 4.7% | $460,000 | $2,300 |
This model assumes more protectionist policies, such as increased tariffs and a focus on energy independence, which could slow some technological advancements but push for job growth in domestic industries.
- Supply chain disruptions from tariffs and regulatory changes lead to higher grocery prices.
- Energy independence and domestic oil production policies may lead to higher prices in the short term.
- Focus on domestic job creation helps bring down unemployment gradually.
- Tariffs, defense spending, and energy subsidies could increase the deficit.
- Inflation remains high due to tariffs and energy costs, but decreases as domestic production ramps up.
- Economic growth is slower due to higher costs from tariffs and energy production investments.
- Steady income growth as domestic jobs are created in traditional industries.
- Higher rates to counter inflationary pressures and support the economy.
- Rising prices due to demand for housing and slower supply due to regulatory restrictions.
- Rent increases as demand outpaces supply in a growing economy.
Nothing Changes Model - Model 4 of 4
Year | Average Cost Of Groceries | Gas Price | Unemployment Rate | National Deficit | Inflation Rate | GDP Growth Rate | Median Household Income | Federal Interest Rate: | Housing Market Median Price | Avg Monthly Rent: |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2024 | $438 | $3.66 | 3.9% | 1.7T | 2.4% | 1.9% | $74,000 | 5.5% | $415,000 | $2,047 |
2025 | $470 | $3.45 | 4.0% | 1.8T | 3.0% | 2.0% | $80,000 | 4.8% | $435,000 | $1,800 |
2026 | $485 | $3.50 | 4.1% | 1.9T | 2.7% | 1.9% | $82,000 | 4.7% | $440,000 | $1,850 |
2027 | $500 | $3.55 | 4.2% | 2.0T | 2.5% | 1.8% | $84,000 | 4.5% | $445,000 | $1,900 |
2028 | $515 | $3.60 | 4.3% | 2.1T | 2.4% | 1.7% | $86,000 | 4.3% | $450,000 | $1,950 |
This model uses the data from How We Generated the Financial Outlook (Prediction)